Hazus | Communicate Your Results

[ upbeat music ] [ sound effects ]
boom, whoosh, drip, splash, sparkle [ upbeat music fades in ] Welcome to the “Communicate Your Results”
video tutorial. In this video we will review statistical uncertainty
and discuss how to view and share results in reports, tables, and maps. [ upbeat music ] It is important to note that, like nearly
all scientific models, Hazus analyses contain some level of uncertainty in their results. For example, suppose a marathon runner runs
ten practice races to train for an upcoming event. The fastest time they achieve is 3.0 hours,
and the slowest time is 4.0 hours. We could use the times of the practice races
and statistical modeling to estimate it will take the runner 3.5 hours to complete the
11th race. But there is some uncertainty in that prediction
since we do not have complete data for our
inputs. What if the runner finished nine races in
less than 3.5 hours and an injury or inclement weather caused one 4-hour result? Then a better prediction for the 11th race
may actually be 3.25 hours. This uncertainty is communicated in different
ways, but it is most commonly expressed in the form of a range of values and a confidence
interval, or the probability that a result will fall within that range. So, we would report our runner’s predicted
finishing time as 3.5 hours, a single figure, then add an uncertainty range of “plus or
minus 0.25 hours.” If using a confidence interval, it might be
appropriate to rephrase this to say, “There is a 95% chance that the runner will finish
the 11th race between 3.25 and 3.75 hours.” Hazus operates on a similar principle. Hazus was originally designed for use by decision makers in emergency management situations, so it uses the generalized building and demographic data, damage curves, and other inputs in order to create a statistical estimate of an area’s
risk, not to provide an exact representation of reality. Since decision makers need information quickly,
but may not have time during emergency situations to calculate or communicate confidence intervals in results data, all results are reported as single figures. Applying this to the analogy of a marathon
runner, the Hazus result for estimating the 11th race time would be reported simply as
3.5 hours, without the 0.25-hour range or any confidence interval. You will see this demonstrated later in the
video when we view Hazus results data in various forms. How much or how little of this uncertainty
you discuss when reporting Hazus results will depend on your audience and situation. In emergency response situations, it may not
be possible to communicate ranges of uncertainty and your results could be presented as a ballpark figure to fulfill the need for a quick estimate. On the other hand, presenting to an academic
audience or using Hazus for research purposes would likely include a discussion on the methodology and uncertainty in results. Since Hazus does not provide the confidence
interval or range of possibilities when reporting results, you will have to estimate approximate
confidence intervals, or, at minimum, note that an uncertainty range exists. Note that you can produce higher quality results
by updating inventory, hazard data, and other parameters to reduce uncertainty in your analyses. Now that we’ve reviewed statistical uncertainty
inherent to the model, we’re ready to discuss various methods used to communicate Hazus
results. Hazus provides three methods of displaying
data from the various scenarios: reports, tables, and maps. When choosing between a report, table, or
map, ask yourself who your audience is, what you plan to do with the data, and what level
of detail you need to provide. [ upbeat music ] We’ll begin with Summary Reports. Summary Reports consolidate your results data
by a selected category and present the outcomes by occupancy type or construction class. Due to its broad scope, visually appealing
presentation, and succinct summary capabilities, reports are a popular vehicle for communicating
data with decision makers. For our example, we will view the “Casualties
– All” report from our Earthquake hazard scenario. This will create a convenient, summarized
PDF with the casualty results data from this earthquake scenario. To access the report, open the “Results” menu
and choose “Summary Reports”. Select the “Losses” tab, choose the “Casualties
– All” report name, and click “View”. As we scroll through, you can see that the
report displays the results data in multiple ways, including graphs, charts, tables, and
text. For example, the report has an easy-to-read
bar graph with the Region Total Casualties, as well as a breakdown below with the specific
casualty figures aggregated for your entire study region. This is important for decision makers as information is presented clearly and there is little-to-no need for further parsing. However, notice that these are single figures
and do not contain a range or confidence interval. It is important to remember that these are
estimates only, and they should be presented as such when communicating the results with
decision makers. Summary Reports are excellent resources since
you can generate a number of these reports quickly, allowing you to rapidly and easily
communicate a wide range of results. However, these are only summaries and you
will need to use other methods to view more specific and detailed information. Summary Reports are limited in that they do
not provide the values for each module nor comparative context, they are not interactive,
and they are not geo-spatial representations of the model. [ upbeat music ] Another common method of presenting results
is in tables. Tables generally provide more detail and are
more valuable to data analysts who want to dive deeper into the raw results data. For example, let’s look at the total casualties
of our study region, just as we did in the summary report. Open the Results menu, hover on the “Casualties” submenu, and select “by Occupancy”. A dialog box appears with the results data
in a grid display sorted by tract and Severity
level. You can change the displayed data by choosing
a different building type or Inside vs. Outside location setting in their respective dropdowns,
or by selecting a different tab to change if the scenario were to occur at Night Time,
Day Time, and Commute Time. As you can see, the grid contains specific
numbers, providing extremely detailed and specific data to explore and manipulate. You can map or print the raw data by selecting
a column and clicking the “Map” button at the bottom of the box. The major benefit of viewing the data in tables
is that, while reports consolidate data into categories, tables maintain a high-level of
specificity and contextual information. While the specificity may not be relevant
to a decision-maker, an analyst may want to focus on data that’s displayed in the table
and interact with it, but not need the packaging provided by running a report. This allows for higher-level data analysis
that can be used to guide future decision-making. [ upbeat music ] A third common format for presenting results
data is through maps. As shown in the previous step and in the “Reviewing Your Results” video, it is possible to visualize your results data layer-by-layer directly
on your study region in Hazus. Mapping creates useful visualizations that
quickly communicate the magnitude and location of impacts in your study region in an intuitive
and accessible way. However, when creating maps, it is necessary
to consider how you present the data since different scales, colors, or graphic representations
will influence the reader’s understanding of the results and can lead to different conclusions. It is possible to create both printable and
digital maps directly from Hazus. Once you have your data layers on your study
region, open the “View” menu and click “Layout View”. Here you can begin customizing your map with
results data layers, text, legend, and other elements by using the Table of Contents and
the “Insert” menu options. Once you have created your map, you can save
it as a map package, pdf, or jpeg, or upload it to ArcGIS Online. Alternatively, you can simply export the data
from Hazus and create a map in another program that best suits your intended audience and
purpose. Congratulations! In this video you learned about statistical uncertainty and how to communicate data in report, table, and map form. Look for more Hazus video tutorials on the
FEMA YouTube channel. [ upbeat music fades out ]

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