Heavy Rain & Flooding for the Southeast Likely


hello everybody welcome back to another
upload on this fantastic New Year’s Day January 1st 2020 here to kick off 2020
we’re talking some very intense rainfall across the southeast
stretching from Baton Rouge Louisiana and across the Alabama Mississippi the
Tennessee area West Virginia and Kentucky where there could be two to
four to maybe six inches of rain lots of flood warnings flood advisories are
issued for these areas we have a lot of detail on that system coming right up in
just a bit before we do get started though be sure to check out all my
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everyday basis or as often as possible so we’re gonna look at the national
weather service here because there is flood warnings River flood warnings
going on right now and this is only gonna get worse as there’s more rain on
the way the Tennessee area literally where candy s where we have dr. fell
they are my best viewers actually that actually gave me the twenty20 calendar
so thank you both for all of that you’re really awesome so there are flood
watches in these areas especially across the Tennessee actually in the most of
the green they’re taking away the whole state they’re pretty much under a flood
watch a high wind warning for the Apple actions actually a high wind watch I
believe that is for the Apple actions you barely see it on the screen I am
very certain that the flood watch could be extended all the way into the
Kentucky area so expect a lot of rain and some gusty winds as this storm
system pulls through so we’re now gonna take a look at the let’s go into our
PowerPoint here this is where we will do most of our forecasting here presented
by me so you can see here on the NAMM model the radar forecasts essentially in
decibels so when you look at radar this is what you would see so there’s gonna
be some moderate to very heavy rain and severe weather across Louisiana there is
a slight risk for severe weather that will conclude damaging winds possible
tornadoes and very intense rainfall the hail threat looks to be pretty slim I’m
given that the look there’s a lot of warm air aloft and the mid-level lapse
rates are not very steep which is good news at least a hail threat is low but
the tornado threat and the damaging wind threat could be pretty elevated as this
pulls through you can see here for tomorrow morning when you meet leave for
your morning commute headed off to work could see some really heavy rain lot of
orange and red colors there it is just beginning to move into the Tennessee
Valley especially for western Tennessee central Tennessee getting in on the
showers and some heavier rainfall but look how intense this rainfall could
actually be for the majority of Thursday morning we’re looking at rain rates of
about an inch to maybe two inches an hour that will certainly lead to
flooding and that’s why there’s a flood watch issued because small streams could
flood rivers could definitely flood already mini rivers are in the flood
stage right now and it’s only gonna get worse right now right okay and then also
there is a threat for urban flooding and some standing water on streets so really
be careful out there tomorrow will be a very rough day for very heavy rain windy
conditions yuck it’s gonna be an atmospheric River only that this is in
the southeast and not California you can see very prominent moisture here really
stringing up from the south lotta energy within the atmosphere and then as we go
through the afternoon hours very intense rainfall across
Nashville Memphis Tennessee Knoxville Tennessee moderate to heavy rain doctor
fell and also candy s please be careful out there you’re expecting to see some
very intense rainfall tomorrow afternoon and into the evening hours and some
thunderstorms too so keep in mind to be a really rough night ahead for some very
intense rainfall then the ring moves a little north before then it kind of
slides back in as that cooler air tries to roll through but my goodness a rough
one on the way for northern Georgia for Alabama and Mississippi the Tennessee
the we’re looking at West Virginia portions there of Ohio and Kentucky and
Louisiana getting a lot of rain with this system be careful out there
KY or known as pyro al 1995 one of my YouTube viewers be very careful out
there lots of rain might want to just stay inside if you can because it’s
going to be raining pretty good all the way through Friday morning as soon as it
starts which looks as start probably as early as Thursday morning will continue
all the way through probably Friday afternoon before it tapers off can be
along 24 hours of moderate to really heavy rain it there so the reason why
there’s gonna be a lot of rain with this system is number one there’s a lot of
moisture in the atmosphere the dew points are up and we’re looking at dew
points in the low 60s into the upper 60s so a lot of moisture out there and you
got a lot of total perceptible water so this is how much water is in the
atmosphere so if you would forcely squeeze all the water out you would get
a lot of rainfall a lot of water perceptible in the atmosphere and you
can see here the contours showing you in the yellow there in the orange you’re
looking at an inch in and three-quarters up to about two inches of water that’s a
lot in the atmosphere and that’s why there is going to be some very heavy
rain in these areas especially across central Mississippi and Alabama that’s
where the heaviest rain will be setting up
and then this atmospheric River moves through bringing again that heavy rain
and the wind threat for the areas in some areas especially along the coast
where those thunderstorms will likely be strongest all right so I made this map
again I’ve been doing pretty good at these maps since I had the time to do
these maps don’t expect these every day but I made this map today showing you
the potential for rain accumulation here based on all of the models put together
and so the majority of the models across Jackson also for northeastern
Mississippi northwestern Alabama you could see four to five inches of rain
could see locally up to six inches in many lower in some locations six inches
is a lot of rain and that’s gonna lead to flooding and then in the leg yellow
areas like Birmingham near Evansville Cincinnati you could see about about two
and a half to four inches of rain so a lot of water there Columbus Pittsburgh
Charlestown lots of rainfall make sure you’re listening to the video here as
I’m giving out a lot of detail again two to three inches in these areas st. Louis
Springs feel Little Rock Houston one to two inches of rain Raleigh Charlotte
Atlanta Washington DC Philadelphia about an inch or so expected there may be a
little more near Virginia Beach could see probably about an inch in
three-quarters or probably a little near the two inch mark they’re almost getting
close to a little about it to two point ten inches of rain there surprisingly
enough most of Florida looks to be in the clear probably about three quarters
of an inch especially across Pensacola Savannah and Charlestown areas so lot of
rain severe weather out there especially for Jackson for you nort New Orleans can
have the threat for damaging winds and tornadoes tomorrow actually not to yeah
tomorrow is actually the dam mixed up I cannot believe we’re already coming into
Thursday last night at this time we were live streaming or were I was getting
ready to do my live stream short so five days out this is the rain total
on the GFS model so we’re losing a couple of models here and you can see
that five to maybe seven five to six inch mark they’re noting in a very thin
corridor this is where there can be locally up to six inches hidden within
this kind of gray ish shaving grayish reddish shading in that area and that’s
the area that we’re most concerned for for flooding all the way across
Tennessee could see about three inches the Kentucky area about two inches again
this is the actual rainfall total given from the GFS and the now model is pretty
significant to look at that probably near five inches for Knoxville Tennessee
for Nashville Tennessee a lot of rain actually Nashville’s over here more
you’re looking at an inch but for Knoxville Tennessee you’re looking at a
lot more rainfall there obviously across northwestern Alabama central Mississippi
probably about four and a half to maybe five in three-quarter inches of rain
almost six inches there no Joe no doubt about that it could happen with all the
water in the atmosphere so will be a rough day tomorrow probably not a day to
go into work might want to stay home out there alright and again the reason for
this is that atmospheric River which I will show you here really
quickly on our satellite imagery it’s already beginning to be in the making
here so let let’s click on that and you can see there is that atmospheric River
really starting to take place anytime this is uh this would refer to
California if this was over here you get a lot of this tropical moisture that
just kind of funnels right in it’s almost like California but only this is
a lot further south and it’s a lot further east but none of the less take
this pretty seriously you know a lot of rain a lot of tropical moisture here and
yeah it’s you know these are somewhat typical though for this time of year for
the deep south given that there’s a high contrast in temperature
differences between the north and the south
all right everybody that’s gonna do with this forecast I sure hope you enjoyed it
if you did be sure to subscribe to the YouTube channel if you really really
like the content that I do it’s always being weather aware and I always try to
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next video probably either tomorrow or probably tomorrow since I won’t probably
be doing one on Friday peace everyone

11 thoughts on “Heavy Rain & Flooding for the Southeast Likely

  1. Great job David! I just recently posted on this as well! Happy New Year! 🥳

  2. Great one bud! Are you busy anymore? I wanted to call you about the forecast for January! Your the best, that’s wht

  3. Thanks for the shout-out David. We are ready for this major rain event. We'll call you this weekend if you are available. Thanks for the awesome video and super duper 👍 update!

  4. Always appreciate your forecasts. Thank you and hope you have a happy new year.

  5. Just watched your other video and glad I'm not in the flood range hereon this one. Oh goody the rain looks like it might be moving out. I need to keep up with the due points I guess. Watching adds as I think help you out. Oh rain 1-2 inches. I don't like this. Already hit the thumb up. Thanks David and see you in the next one. As you used to say and I do now.

  6. Last week was a truck drivers headache in northern NM Colorado Wyoming -10 there and I'm sure I'll be going back that way again please tell me the west is going to be quiet.

  7. Sooooo glad it's not below freezing in the southeast. That would be horrific snow or ice totals!

  8. Wow, that's definitely an area to watch in the coming days. I wasn't able to monitor the weather down there extensively today. Happy New Year, David!

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