Peluang Krisis, Untung Investasi diawali Corona Virus?


Hello everyone, friends on the RF channel on YouTube. Still with me, Ryan Filbert, and this week, we will discuss one theme that is currently in an uproar, actually we have already discussed it, and coincidentally also in one of the podcasts on the smart FM radio, I have also discussed it. I want to make a more visual analysis because there are numbers that we can discuss further, so we know together that since the end of the month of 2019 we have found a busy outbreak that has also taken its toll, namely the Corona virus, Corona virus and apparently correct actually entered Indonesia and might be a concern even though the good news is when I made this video for the weekend theme at the first week of March 2020 the coronavirus has started many of which progress has begun to recover but we need to know that the corona virus that is happening at this time paralyzes Industry in China and if for example it will show up clearly in calculations such as the gross domestic income of Indonesia and also the impact of China itself, then we can only find out more actual is in the first semester of 2020 or in the middle of this year, so What is the fate of our investment if the coronavirus is complete but has an impact on state revenues so that it may enter the area crisis and also what will happen if it turns out there is a new epidemic that causes it until the end of 2020 and maybe later make what happened to our portfolio, that is what we will discuss in this weekend video Okay and before that I want to try to Remind Thank you because this question is so many into my WhatsApp where my WhatsApp is now on 08977 713 713 For you who want to ask or even want to get acquainted with me thank you if you want to get acquainted and I am also very happy to get acquainted with many people please add my WhatsApp on 08977 713 713, well before I will continue I will try reviewing in a different perspective, there 1 book read by Bill Gates in which Bill Gates said that this factfulness book is about the reasons we are about the world and why things? Hans Rosling wrote this book and Bill Gates said as one of the 50 best books he had ever read, well factfulness contained 10 arguments about our instincts that often blind us to conclusions and not I promote for you to read the book, but I will give only a bottom line to what is written in this book, well factfulness there is one part that states that the effects of swine flu at that time then there are 700 pandemics who died where the excitement of this pandemic is more severe than tuberculosis. Why? one obituary was reviewed 8000 times by existing media and as long as you know that TB causes deaths per day in Indonesia as many as 300 people from TB means that if we know that in Indonesia the corona virus on Monday in the first week of March was announced there two people who contracted coronavirus and immediately caused the composite stock price index not to go up, down again it was only two but it was a stir all over Jagat and succeeded in lowering the market price by 1% in that time of day, but TB that killed 300 people just seems normal Hysteria caused many people to die Not because of the disease, not because of the clever mic but due to fear and impact furthermore the Wuhan examples were all stopped on that day we do not know how much impact on the cessation of activities of a city could be because transportation is difficult there are people who are on the road have started heart disease do not have dead transportation in place but not discussed and how much we don’t know people who are sick so they can not be handled properly so this is something that we have to reopen our eyes our panic is just excessive, too much or we can see the real facts in Japan the tsunami occurred and there was a nuclear power plant that damaged causing nuclear radiation but it turns out that 1600 people died at that time none of which was caused by the impact on radiation but the impact happened was because he was displaced then his sanitari at the refugee camp was not good he was old he had a complication and finally died yes 1600 this is no one died of nuclear radiation there are more examples Next 1 rich person suicide on an island that for hundreds of years the island has never killed anyone and after being reported in the media due to one rich man committing suicide in that place how hundreds of years there had never been a suicide suddenly appeared 50 new people who committed suicide in The island, Try to imagine a thing that for years there was no negative impact or suicide in that place as soon as there was 1 and it was reported instead of disappearing Instead it even added inspiration for 50 new people to commit suicide in that place, this is what we must look at in life we example of coronavirus, there are data that thousands of people who have started to be affected and have begun to recover a lot and the number of deaths of 3 thousand if based on data I took on March 4, the corona virus case has 93,160 and can be searched by country that recovert has 50,969, which died was 3,200 and there was also an interesting opinion when many people died because of corona virus and he also and we all tried to use masks even though we were healthy there were 30 million people who were affected by AIDS but there were still many people or no body who used condom, this is one thing that is twice a mindset once huh Let’s think together about our panic So from here, let’s take it into a different view of the economy and also the world of investment for our money. So the first message is, let’s make an analysis and news in the news that can provide positive things compared to we only concocted a fear of an event, we can categorize it. as a bad event But that does not mean bad that there is no significant progress or progress that is going on behind him to improve efforts why do not we take? What improvements have been made compared to us? Just keep quiet about the worries that exist, at the end of January 2020 there was a market decline on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, the composite stock price index which declined sharply and continued in February, where at the beginning of February I said that rarely in February in the past has experienced a decline from the market and it turns out that in February we got the Mega bonus round turned out to be an anomaly where something never happened on average so I want to try to discuss further what happened Did you really deserve to worry about feeling worried today about the decline -the decline that occurs in your investment instruments, maybe your stock investment is already in a matter that is worrying for yourself, whether it will go down deeper and so forth or you want to withdraw today, you want to stop-loss today or even you do not want to buy, Wait and see and whatever let’s try to discuss from the past what is a common thread on the positive things we can take, right before we discussed factfulness then what is factfulness in the Indonesian capital market market correction above 10% in 1 month if we process data from 90 to 2020 there is also a question yesterday How to process? it’s easy you have to have data the Indonesian capital market, the Indonesia Stock Exchange from 1990, which is indeed difficult, coincidentally, indeed I have these data and I’ve been from 1982 and I will take them from 90 to 2020 because from 94 our new exchanges have only started to have good volume, before not too Well so if we take from 90 to 2020 it turns out that the correction above 10% there are only 17 times that there is a correction in one month above 10% and that on your screen it is the largest collection of above 10% 97 (31 %) 2008 (31%) 98 August (28%) 2018 please see, OK, so in a very large number of months from 90 to 2020 it turns out correction above 10% has only happened 17 times ok, I continue it turns out that if we pull in 6 months then isn’t there a market correction of 10% in 6 months? so 6 months we keep checking yes it turns out there are and more and 69 times out of 354 times the possibility of you investing for 6 months from 90 – 2020 and interestingly is the highest loss grew 48.59% and happened 69 out of 354 times Okay and the average occurs in 2008, 98 and 97 Try to notice, okay, in 12 months it was 74 times greater than 349 times from 1900 to 2020 and 54% occurred in 2008 precisely in November 2008, October 2008 January 2009 December 2008, February 2009, September 98, June 91, So you could say there are sacred figures that came out were 90, 91, 2008 and 98 2008-2009, 97 to 98, this is a big and passive correction in Indonesia, the numbers also enlarged 74 times from 349 and the highest again 54% above 10% is on your screen on the screen your market correction is above 10% in 24 months from 90-2020 this is interestingly no longer growing but shrinking 59 times from 336 times your chances invest for 2 years and have started to level up the correction is not greater and the numbers are the same, namely in November, October 2008, January 2009 December 2008, February 2009 40 to 50% for 24 months, what can be taken from this condition? if I first I can take it turns out we have 3 sacred years 98, 91 2008, 2009 then the sacred number is our big correction turns out not to far away even at least 50% poll and what’s interesting again there is the next common thread when we pull more length Should if for example it gets worse is 1 month 17, 12 months, 6 months, plus a lot, 12 months plus a lot, 24 months plus a lot 36 more means that the condition is getting worse, getting worse, getting worse, getting worse, apparently not , in 24 months it has begun to decrease the magnitude of the amount corrected both in numbers, percentages, both in the amount of your possibility to lose, the investment means it’s true you have to invest long term

36 thoughts on “Peluang Krisis, Untung Investasi diawali Corona Virus?

  1. Yuk banyak peluang di krisis, akan byk OKB 😁 baca buku kak Ryan Filbert yg Investor Dunia, kl diterapkan sekarang, mantab jiwa lah coy

  2. Saya mau tanya bang kalo semua orang yg beli saham nyari pas harga nya anjlok apakah berarti pda saat harga saham sebaliknya gk ada yg beli?

  3. Uraian yg sangat berkwalitas,semoga dpt mengaspirasi utk mantapkan pendirian ,thank you,sukses selalu brother.

  4. menarik, bro. Thanks. Omong-omong, apa pernah terpikir menggunakan bahasa yg less formal? Sering terasa terlalu kaku, pesannya jadi lebih sulit dipahami.

    Nb: sum up penjelasan tiap data yg sudah dipaparkan sebelumnya ide yg baik, itu sangat membantu menjelaskan maksud bro.

  5. Mantapp bro…menguat kan hati yang lagi galau melihat portofilio yng lagi merah semua………..,sukses ya..

  6. Om saya mau nanya kalo yg invest central asia raya (CAR) 3i network itu aman ga yh, dan tolong berikan penjelasan nya di bikin video om. Mksh

  7. Masuk kang ryan, saya masih newby, blajar dari anda. Blajar invest saham dari segi teknical dari anda πŸ‘

  8. B I A N G K E R O K corona Dunia.
    πŸ‘‡
    CORONA SETANπŸ‘ΉALLAH SWT.

    πŸ‘‰ustad. Corona abdul somad Lc.

  9. saya sih kalo waktu gini gak usah lihat portofolio saham dulu, lihat emas aja yg ijo wkwkwk

  10. Ko Ryan saya mau tnya. Apa yang terjadi ketika ketika membeli saham dah terus di hold. Hingga akhirnya turun menyentuh harga 50 perlembar. Karena harga 50 tidak ada pergerakan. Apa yang harus kita lakukan saat hal itu terjadi ? Terima kasih.

  11. Wait and see…. Ramalan market crash apa akan benar terjadi…??? Be prepare and survive

    Diawali Perang Dagang + Virus Covid 19+ Perang timur Tengah memanas

    Hidup itu misteri

  12. Penyebab kematian tertinggi adalah kecelakaan lalu-lintas… Jasa marga sahamnya langsung rontok harusnya πŸ€ͺ

  13. Sharing menguatkan yang dibutuhkan pemula seperti saya πŸ˜„ terima kasih!

  14. Pak Ryan, banyak ulasan materi bapak yg bagus bagus tentang dunia investasi saham, namun Saya belum menemukan ulasan tentang praktek short selling yg juga memperparah kejatuhan harga saham ( yang dilakukan oleh big player)
    Enak sekali big player bisa main 2 arah seperti forex, bisa ambil untung saat harga jatuh, hanya dengan bayar fee untuk pinjam saham ( sedangkan investor retail / receh jelas2 dilarang untuk short selling)
    Mulai 2-3-2020 BEI melarang short selling sampai batas waktu yg belum ditentukan, apa dampak nya kalau larangan ini nanti dicabut kembali ( semoga jangan dicabut sampai selama nya ) ( semoga tag line yuk nabung saham tidak berubah menjadi yuk judi saham )

  15. Kejadian seperti COVID 19 ini memang mengubah perekonomian secara umum di 2020. Semoga dunia sehat kembali dan investasi saham bisa gain. Historikalnya setiap setelah krisis harga saham akan naik signifikan πŸ™

  16. 700 anggota kpps yg meninggal dalam kurun waktu sebulan saja, tdk menurunkan IHSG.Fakta

  17. Pak saya pegang adro ,yg skrang harga batubara terus turun ,kira2 2 tahun kedepan bagaimana batubara dan saham2nya

  18. Setlah 4 bulan Baru liat portf reksadana lgi dan langsung kaget…
    Rata2 Minus -16%,πŸ˜₯πŸ˜₯

    Dikelola sendiri masih nol soal saham…πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚

  19. Terimakasih pak ryan sudah berbagi pandangan, semoga semakin semangat membuat video dengan bahasan yang lebih mendalam dan menarik lainnya.

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